What’s Going on with Redistricting in North Carolina? Short Answers to Your Questions.

Here are some questions I’m getting about the upcoming redistricting in North Carolina, with my (short) answers:

1. Are we getting new districts?

Yes. A federal court ruled that 28 of our state legislative districts are unconstitutional racial gerrymanders, so they have to be redrawn. Because of the ripple effects of redrawing districts, that means that most — but not all — of our state’s 170 legislative districts (50 Senate; 120 House) will also be redrawn. Parts of eastern and western NC will likely be untouched, but every major city, with the possible exception of Asheville, should see major redrawing.

2. When will we get the new districts?

The court is deciding that right now. At the latest, we should see the new maps within the next few months. But I’d bet 100 million bucks that the GOP has already drawn the new maps in private. They’ll still hold public hearings for the redistricting process, but it will just be to give the appearance of listening to the public. Dog + Pony = Show.

3. Will there be a special election in 2017?

The court is also deciding this right now, but it looks unlikely.

4. Who gets to draw the new districts?

The same folks who drew the last ones — that is, the Republican leaders in the state legislature. However, they have to submit their maps to the court before they’re final to ensure compliance with the ruling. That’s the best part about this.

5. Can’t we get an independent group to draw the new districts?

I have filed that bill three times. Republican leadership won’t allow it to even be heard in committee, let alone come to a vote, let alone pass it. And the court didn’t order it. If we want independent redistricting (which we do, overwhelmingly, as a state), we have to narrow the gap between the number of seats held by Republicans and Democrats to give both sides an incentive to finally come together and bury the weapon of gerrymandering via constitutional amendment. That means the solution to this ultimately runs through organizing to win some legislative elections.

6. Can’t we just use computers or county lines or something?

We can’t just use county lines because we all have to represent the same number of people (for the Senate, it’s roughly 200,000). Inevitably, that means splitting some counties. And turning the process over to an algorithm would essentially be a form of independent redistricting, to which the current majority leadership is dead-set against. There are interesting debates about the extent to which an algorithm would ultimately require human inputs (and thus not be independent), but we don’t even reach that debate until the current leadership loses its ability or desire to oppose independent redistricting, and that doesn’t happen unless the minority party picks up several seats in the next election.

7. Why is this good for the state?

Because it’s probably going to end the artificial, gerrymander-induced supermajorities that currently exist in each chamber, which will let the minority party sustain the Governor’s veto. When the Governor has sustainable vetoes, it will shift the entire political landscape closer to the center and away from the far-right that currently runs the whole show. And that’s a big win for the whole state.